While recognizing that many are on the edge of their seats waiting for my 2010 golf equipment review (Manufacturer’s quote: “I can’t wait to see how many Casey’s we won”), a singularly curious incident happened while I was on the exhibition floor of the Show. I got the call. THE CALL!
A long standing client of mine who is also a fine golfer called and started a conversation by asking “What kind of odds will you give me that I can tell you the exact tournament that Tiger Woods will make his return at?” Well, knowing that my client is no dummy and seeks an edge at every turn, I modestly provoked him with the answer; “I’ll give you 3-1 odds, ten bucks.” After branding me a cheapskate and a lousy odds maker he proceeded to give me the name of the tournament. When I inquired as to his certitude on the matter, he went on to explain that a close associate of his had just spoken to a person inside the Tiger Fortress of Solitude and that his information was money good.
On Wall Street we are pretty familiar with this type of information. In fact, I have done somewhat of a study on the matter. I call it the ‘I’ve gotta guy’ thread. You have to examine it very carefully before you act on it. The tensile strength of the thread can make you or break you.
What happens is a Wall Street type will get a call from someone reasonably close to him with pseudo-specific information that is titillating enough to hopefully move markets. Something like this: “I’ve gotta guy who is very close to Lifesavers International, and he says that Lifesavers is about to get FDA approval on a new drug that will make everyone immortal. It’s gonna be huge!” Sounds great, but you can’t simply act on that. You have to plumb the depths of the sources to get at the reliability of the witness. You have to ask questions. Because if his source is decent, someone might actually want to take a flyer on an idea like that. Because hey, if the thread is strong, it’s as if you are the guy in the room.
PGA Merchandise Show
But that is not the nature of the Tiger tip I received and paid for with 3-1 odds. The Tiger tip that I received falls into the next category which is far more unreliable. It’s the nefarious ‘I’ve gotta guy who’s gotta guy‘ thread. When it comes to market moving information, when I hear “I’ve gotta guy who’s gotta guy who is very close to Lifesavers International, and he says blah,blah,blah”, I cringe. By that time I’ve stopped listening all together. Why? Because by the time an ‘I’ve gotta guy who’s gotta guy‘ thread has reached you, you’re the last guy to get the goods. You’re the guy most likely to end up holding an empty bag of promises. You’re the guy who loses money and looks stupid doing it.
But a Tiger tip is irresistible for me. And my client knew that. He also identified the next link in the thread, because he knows that I believe his source to be credible. But the third link, the third guy, the person inside the Tiger Fortress of Solitude, is very nebulous at best. Still, I know my guy. I am impressed that he was willing to risk $10 to my $30 on this action. After all, he would like nothing more better than to clip the golf insider on a piece of information like this. And the idea of him having to pay me off $10 on such a ridiculous bet is about as attractive to him as drinking a bottle of concentrated lemon juice.
So even though I am wandering around in the land of ‘I’ve gotta guy who’s gotta guy‘ and I have $30 at risk, if he’s right it’s worth it to me. I am a fan. I have clients that have investments that would likely do better if Tiger came back sooner. Tiger gives people like me lots to write about. And, oh yeah, I’ve gotta guy who gave me 5-1 odds that I can tell exactly what tournament Tiger is making his return at.
Bay Hill.
